Synthetic worked example · not a user result

Air Rifle session analysis: stable group size, falling score

Two synthetic 10-shot series have almost the same spread. The second scores four points lower because the complete pattern moves low-right. Here is how to read the difference without rushing to a conclusion.

Two synthetic Air Rifle series with similar spread and different centresSeries one is compact around target centre. Series two has similar internal spread but is shifted low-right, producing a lower score.Series 1Series 2
Original TargetIQ illustration using synthetic coordinates. Pellet circles are enlarged for legibility; compare pattern placement, not visual ring calls.

The series data

SeriesScore / XExtreme spreadMean radiusGroup centre
Series 195 / 4 X8.2 mm2.0 mm0.8 mm left · 0.5 mm high
Series 291 / 1 X8.0 mm2.1 mm4.4 mm right · 2.0 mm low

Observation 1: precision is nearly unchanged

Extreme spread changes by only 0.2 mm and mean radius by 0.1 mm. On these two small samples, there is little evidence that the internal compactness of Series 2 became materially worse. The lower score needs another explanation.

Observation 2: placement changed

The first group is close to target centre. The second average moves 4.4 mm right and 2.0 mm low—large enough on the tiny Air Rifle target to turn otherwise similar relative shot positions into lower ring values.

A centred-score simulation would help demonstrate the same point: move the second pattern without changing distances between its shots, and much of the score difference disappears.

What this example does not prove

  • One shifted series does not prove the sights require adjustment.
  • The table does not identify whether position, aim, setup or another factor caused the movement.
  • Ten shots are not enough to declare a lasting precision trend.
  • A real review should inspect card order, notes and verified hole positions before acting.

A careful next step

Record the shift as an observation, check whether it persists on a fresh comparable group, and only then use the sight's documented click value or a deliberate setup test. Preserve the original series instead of retrospectively centring or deleting it from the log.